Celebrating 10 years! 2007-2017

LSAT Test-Takers Surge 18.1%, The Biggest Increase In 16 Years

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_ blog/2018/05/lsat-test-ta massivemissive05/11/18
Has this actually been verified? schopenhauerx9905/19/18
Make the scam great again! 6figuremistake05/11/18
Like they say, you can't fight city hall. At least the patenttrollnj05/11/18
In another 5 years the economy will be in the terlet and we flyer1405/11/18
Big law upped top rate, news papers did the marketing, admis triplesix05/11/18
I agree the next crop deserve the pain that’s coming their wearyattorney05/11/18
Even tarot card readers and fortune-tellers win in their own jeffm05/11/18
Your general point is correct, but it’s rare for a fortune wearyattorney05/13/18
We had someone at our office who is going, and despite pleas downwardslope05/11/18
180k annual income... Y'all just trying to keep the competit triplesix05/11/18
When you try to dissuade someone from law school, they usual e36m305/14/18
There's a widely published statistic that like 80% of people onehell05/14/18
You'd have a lot less kids going to law school if the starti irishlaw05/11/18
I still don't fully trust the employment information being g lazlo05/12/18
Not sure why all the concern. Success is what you make of it dandydan05/14/18
Law schools at the bottom of the enrollment cycle were comfo wearyattorney05/14/18
20k enrollment is a pipe dream now. It looks like it bottome triplesix05/14/18
It always was. What wasn’t a pipe dream was the scammers wearyattorney05/14/18
Yes, I imagine they are going *with the intention* of landin 6figuremistake05/14/18
“Besides, anyone who graduates from law and enters a non-l wearyattorney05/14/18
Right. A job that you could've gotten without the JD is a jo onehell05/14/18
And that’s the loss for people that “succeed.” If you wearyattorney05/14/18
With all that said, I don't understand why it bothers you so dandydan05/14/18
It bothers me because it’s a perfect scam. I talked to so wearyattorney05/14/18
Right. It doesn't "bother" me so much people are making bad 6figuremistake05/14/18
I understand your umbrage at the scam masters. Still doesn't dandydan05/14/18
I lose sleep because I hate scammers and it’s a scam that wearyattorney05/14/18
"Obviously, your issue is not only with the "scammers", it's 6figuremistake05/14/18
I have a myriad regrets in life but not remaining dependent parlance05/14/18
Law school applicants now have much more useful information turde05/20/18
TITCR. wearyattorney05/20/18

massivemissive (May 11, 2018 - 8:07 am)

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2018/05/lsat-test-takers-surge-181-the-biggest-increase-in-16-years.html


Suckers.

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schopenhauerx99 (May 19, 2018 - 12:22 am)

Has this actually been verified?

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6figuremistake (May 11, 2018 - 8:41 am)

Make the scam great again!

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patenttrollnj (May 11, 2018 - 8:47 am)

Like they say, you can't fight city hall.

At least the information about the law school scam is out there now, and anyone who cares to listen is able to get information.

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flyer14 (May 11, 2018 - 10:06 am)

In another 5 years the economy will be in the terlet and we will have a surge in new membership.

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triplesix (May 11, 2018 - 10:11 am)

Big law upped top rate, news papers did the marketing, admission surge...

Didnt we see this happen 07-09?

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wearyattorney (May 11, 2018 - 2:45 pm)

I agree the next crop deserve the pain that’s coming their way; however, the scam blog movement left some important work unfinished. Most importantly, even if you get big law, you are probably still screwed long term. There are plenty of big law wash outs scraping by to make a living. I wager that only about 1/3 of people that get big law wind up having a career worth the sacrifice, and about another twenty percent don’t get destroyed. The scamblogs were headed to exposing that final, awful and concealed truth, but the work remains unfinished.

It’s a small point in the greater scheme of things though. Let them eat cake. I envy the lemmings for the information they have at their fingertips, and for their youth, but in the end, there’s no cure for hubris or stupid other than pain.

It does irk me though that these liberal scum law professors are going to continue getting guaranteed cushy salaries from Uncle Sam. No other scammers have such a sweet deal, and it adds insult to injury when those frauds get up there and lecture about social justice and other nonesense.

I suppose the law scammers won though, and that’s a shame.

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jeffm (May 11, 2018 - 2:58 pm)

Even tarot card readers and fortune-tellers win in their own ways. There is a never-ending supply of greed and desperation out there.

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wearyattorney (May 13, 2018 - 1:03 pm)

Your general point is correct, but it’s rare for a fortune teller and tarot card reader to ruin your life. If you aren’t rich, the odds are greater than 70 percent that law will hurt you and about 30 percent that it will destroy you.

It’s a shame that the government is subsidizing this level of failure. It’s a shame that such vile human beings are being supported by it.

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downwardslope (May 11, 2018 - 3:13 pm)

We had someone at our office who is going, and despite pleas from several attorneys and JDs not to go, the person remained undeterred. I don’t know what websites this person has been reading, but wow—- the level of delusion was unreal. You have around everyone in an office pleading with you not to go, telling you it is a horrible idea and you just disregard everyone in there? I think we had a JD who had passed the bar and never managed to land an attorney position try to explain that there are no guarantees.

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triplesix (May 11, 2018 - 3:14 pm)

180k annual income... Y'all just trying to keep the competition down bro!

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e36m3 (May 14, 2018 - 11:12 am)

When you try to dissuade someone from law school, they usually think you are questioning their intelligence and dismiss you as a jerk who they will prove wrong.

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onehell (May 14, 2018 - 2:07 pm)

There's a widely published statistic that like 80% of people think they are above average, which of course is impossible. American Exceptionalism isn't just about national identity but individual identity as well - we've all been raised with the belief that you can be anything you want to be so long as you work hard enough, and our TV and movies are replete with the tales of people who, by simply working harder than everyone else, succeeded against all odds. Of course, the reality is that there are a million failures for every success story like that, but it doesn't stop people from going to law school any more than it stops people from trying to make it in Hollywood or get drafted by a major league sports team. They're all just "following their dreams" and anyone who tries to dissuade them is just sour grapes. Until they turn 30 or so, that is, and all of a sudden everyone starts acting like they should've known better. Until then, the idealism of youth is to be celebrated and encouraged.

The result is that people don't make decisions based on probability; they make decisions based on passion and on following one's dreams, and we question the motives of anyone who tells you anything different. Couple that with the continuing myth (still believed by many parents) of attorneys as a high-status profession, along with the fact that no other professional school will take people with no prerequisites or work experience, and you have a recipe for disaster. Students see law school as a magic factory that turns useless liberal arts degrees into gainful employment (or at least a place to take shelter from the real world and avoid moving back in with parents for three years), while parents get to brag about you to their friends.

But ask those same (usually suburban upper middle class) parents how often they themselves or any of their friends have actually used the services of a lawyer for anything other than a real estate closing, divorce or will drafting that comes up maybe once or twice in a lifetime. You quickly find that most regular people need a lawyer somewhere between 0-3 times in their entire life. That leaves a subset of very poor people who have plenty of legal needs but no money, and corporations for which biglaw (which doesn't regularly hire in substantial numbers from most schools) has cornered the market.

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irishlaw (May 11, 2018 - 5:06 pm)

You'd have a lot less kids going to law school if the starting salary for a liberal arts degree wasnt 40k. How are you suppose to live it up in NY SF or LA on 40k? That 180k biglaw salary makes people pretty blind to the information out there.

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lazlo (May 12, 2018 - 5:00 pm)

I still don't fully trust the employment information being given out by law schools - how complete is it, and does it include salary info? That would be as if not more important than employment rates.

A starting salary of $40K for a liberal arts degree wouldn't be so bad if college didn't cost $100K+. But that brings up way too many other issues to discuss, so let's just leave it at that. In the end I agree w/patenttrollnj and wearyattorney, by now all the relevant info is out there for every applicant to make a reasonably informed decision. All we can do is educate those who want to be educated, and wish the rest good luck. Like flyer14 says, those that don't make it big will be posting here soon enough, lol.

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dandydan (May 14, 2018 - 9:08 am)

Not sure why all the concern. Success is what you make of it, but then again, this is JDU...

Posters need not worry about these people gunning for your jobs. They are going to law school to land the corporate or government jobs. They are not gunning for the disability/family/tort/immigration law jobs, at least not yet. There is time for that.

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wearyattorney (May 14, 2018 - 1:14 pm)

Law schools at the bottom of the enrollment cycle were comfortably producing double the number of attorneys than attorney jobs, and again, that’s when enrollment was at the bottom.

Given the consistent compounding surplus over the last two decades, competition isn’t going to be culled at any level. You would need law schools to graduate 20000 JDs, a healthy economy, and about ten years for the job market to improve for existing lawyers. That was never likely.

This doesn’t mean sending even more people to the slaughterhouse, while enriching government fed swine for their swindle, makes sense.

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triplesix (May 14, 2018 - 1:32 pm)

20k enrollment is a pipe dream now. It looks like it bottomed out at around 36k with the next wave coming in as we speak.

Schools gonna get profitable again soon from that bump and halfas austery measurea that they under took over last 5 years.

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wearyattorney (May 14, 2018 - 1:59 pm)

It always was. What wasn’t a pipe dream was the scammers feeling some real pain and the fleecing of the tax payer to end.

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6figuremistake (May 14, 2018 - 2:01 pm)

Yes, I imagine they are going *with the intention* of landing the big corporate and government jobs, which is the problem. Over the past few years, the economy has gotten better, but the number of jobs for attorneys hasn't really increased. Likewise, it's only a small portion of grads who will have the pedigree for the marquee jobs.

Bad press about the reality of the scam has caused enrollment to fall, which means fewer law grads chasing these limited jobs. Also, many of these schools have had to give away the farm to encourage enrollment - tuition remains high but is steeply discounted for many students. Also, non-legal jobs are easier to get (due to the economy) with many companies being less selective with their hiring practices. This 1) Gives practicing attorneys a little more leeway to transition to another field and 2) Recent JD's have better odds when applying to non-legal, entry level roles.

The first two improvements (smaller pool of grads and sharper discounts) will vanish if enrollment ticks up. Furthermore, the good economy isn't going to last forever. In fact, it'll probably go bust around the time these kids graduate. Besides, anyone who graduates from law and enters a non-legal role has wasted his/her time and money.

This is nothing new, the scam had a great situation in the pre-recession days, too. Lots of great press about the (immediate) fortunes for the BigLaw bound and little attention on the considerably large cohort that ended up in small law, doc review, and non-legal roles. When the recession hit, people started waking up because a lot of these backup position were no longer available and far fewer grads were enjoying the BigLaw "oasis".

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wearyattorney (May 14, 2018 - 2:12 pm)

“Besides, anyone who graduates from law and enters a non-legal role has wasted his/her time and money.”

This can’t be over stressed. Law schools are masters at concealing this fact. If I’m a CPA earning 100k a year before law school, and then, after law school, I’m earning 95k, the law schools tout this as a win. It’s not a win. It’s a massive loss.

When you add complete failure (total unemployment), low paid employment where the JD is a disadvantage, extremely bad law jobs (pi mills, etc), JD “advantage” jobs that could have been had before law school, and employment that is considered “generally good,” but is objectively worse than what was had before law school, we are probably talking about 85 percent of law school graduates. If you do an individual assessment, eg the big law partner that legimately could be working in finance under the same pressure but for 100 times the money, then we are approaching a 95 percent failure rate.

I wager only 5 percent of law school grads have a “but for law school my life wouldn’t be as good outcome,” and in that 5 percent is included future law professors.

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onehell (May 14, 2018 - 2:43 pm)

Right. A job that you could've gotten without the JD is a job you could've gotten without the law degree. Heck, even if you got a full ride with living expenses you still can't disregard the opportunity cost of three years' lost income. If you did go into debt, then you have to add all the interest you'll pay over the years PLUS the money you lost from not working those years, any investment gains lost from not saving for retirement, etc. Being out of the workforce that long is a very, very costly proposition which the JD would have to command a huge and directly-attributable earnings premium to justify.

Take lifetime earnings, subtract the debt plus interest plus opportunity cost, and then compare what's left to average lifetime earnings in something else you might have done. The result is not likely to be a positive number, which means there is no ROI.

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wearyattorney (May 14, 2018 - 3:24 pm)

And that’s the loss for people that “succeed.” If you factor in the catastrophic outcomes, probably a third of people going, and it’s laughable.

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dandydan (May 14, 2018 - 2:57 pm)

With all that said, I don't understand why it bothers you so much that an adult makes a decision to attend law school. People ask me all the time and I tell them that it might be a good idea, just understand the circumstances and know what you are getting into. We then have further conversations about the realities. If they feel that it is for them, I then encourage them to do what they think is best. I stress how important it is not to just follow your passion but make a real plan. If they make an adult decision to go, it is fine with me. They definitely can be successful. If they are not, they knew what the deal.

On this board, people plead with others not to go to law school. Why are you pleading? Why does it bother you so much? It is their lives. They make certain decisions, the same way you and I do. Why do you care what someone else does? If he chooses, in your mind, to wreck his life, why do you stress about some stranger for years on end?

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wearyattorney (May 14, 2018 - 3:11 pm)

It bothers me because it’s a perfect scam. I talked to someone that was going to lease, I’m not kidding, a Toyota Camry for 300 dollars a week. That isn’t a typo, that’s reality and it’s insane. Everyone told him it’s insane. The government isn’t subsidizing it, the media doesn’t portray it as glamorous, and private sector actors are taking the risk.

That isn’t how law school works. Some kid is reading my words right now. Shes about to enroll to Cooley or some similarly situated institution. She shows this to her parents, and they don’t care. They are telling her what she is reading is a lie. The federal government is backing her decision 100 percent. The schools hold themselves out as non- profits for the public good. She sees that and then she reads this. She enrolls.

It’s a perfect, government endorsed, and society confirmed scam.

I hate the schools, the professors, and the government that is alllowing it. I was a registered Democract before law school, but the experience showed me the lie of big government and it’s proponents. I’m crimson red now. Its probably one of the greatest grifts happening in society right now, and they are getting away with it. Can you tell me any other decision that the federal government enables, directly, like this?

You say it’s possible for someone to “succeed” by going to law school. What does that mean? Do you mean being better off than having not attended? I disagree completely. The only people that are better off are people that become law professors or people who come from wealthy families and want the prestige.

Literally, it’s bad for everyone else. How bad is the question?

You got big law and made partner? You could have gone to finance and made 100 times more.

You are general counsel? You could have been CEO.

You entered a specialty that pays well, eg tax or patent? You probably made more with better hours and better stability before you went to law school.

You work in the public sector to help people? You would have done more good as a social worker.

You work in the public sector because you know in a declining country that’s the way to go? You would have done better as a teacher or a cop.

You own a PI mill finances by your wealthy family and you don’t care about prestige? You probably would have been better off running the family business.

You built a PI mill because you are a tremendous salesperson? You would have been off in an actual sales role.

The scam is so bad that “success” means congratulations, you aren’t ruin and you are employed. That’s ludicrous. That’s ludicrous for a federal funded operation run by people saying they are acting for the public good. Take it on an individual basis, and we are looking at a 90 percent fail rate, maybe higher.

It’s only good for two types of people: law professor and rich person seeking prestige. For everyone else, the effects range from misstep to toxic.

This is why I care.

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6figuremistake (May 14, 2018 - 3:22 pm)

Right. It doesn't "bother" me so much people are making bad decisions. It bothers me that a group of smug con-artists are getting rich by ripping off a bunch of young people and the US treasury. When they are called out for it, they lie, create convoluted (and misleading) justifications (e.g. a million dollar premium on having a JD), or shed crocodile tears over "access to justice".

As for the students, I experienced the disaster that is law school first hand, and honestly, I don't want anyone else to have that same experience. Being unemployable and six figures in debt is not a fun place to be.

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dandydan (May 14, 2018 - 3:54 pm)

I understand your umbrage at the scam masters. Still doesn't explain why you plead with people not to go to law school. You lose sleep because some guy in Minnesota made an adult decision to go law school? Why are you pleading with people? Obviously, your issue is not only with the "scammers", it's with the people who fall for the scam. Do you have issues with people who invest in bad real estate deals? Do you lose sleep over some guy in Arkansas investing in Arkansas commercial real estate?

Btw, I am way better off for going to law school. I presume that this fact eats bothers you as well

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wearyattorney (May 14, 2018 - 4:06 pm)

I lose sleep because I hate scammers and it’s a scam that has personally affected people in my life. It’s also one of the greatest scams currently going on in this country for the reasons outlined in this thread. The examples you cited are private sector actors acting in a way that is considered by the culture as risky. Law school is culturally considered safe, it’s federally funded, and it’s actors are purporting to act for the public good (and the cultural bias and government shield them from being exposed).

If you don’t fall into one of the two specific categories, eg rich and looking for prestige and/or a law professor, I highly doubt you are better off for going to law school. You may be an overall success. Law school may not have resulted in your destruction, like it does for over a third of the class every year, but I seriously doubt, given your personal potential and skill, you are truly better off. You probably could have done something else and had more success. Law schools define success as employed. I define success as having a better life because of going.

If you legitimately are better off causally for going, that’s excellent. I’d wager you are part of no more than a few hundred people a year that go.

Remember, I refuse to compare a general counsel to someone that is cooking fries at McDonalds. Someone with the intelligence, drive, and ruthlessness to achieve that level of success had more options, even if they succeeded at law.

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6figuremistake (May 14, 2018 - 10:39 pm)

"Obviously, your issue is not only with the "scammers", it's with the people who fall for the scam."

Perhaps my statement was too ambiguous, but I don't disagree. It's more of a matter of priority. My biggest concern is about the scam institutions, but I did add:

"As for the students, I experienced the disaster that is law school first hand, and honestly, I don't want anyone else to have that same experience. Being unemployable and six figures in debt is not a fun place to be."

Sure, I'm concerned about people who may be conned by other enterprises, but I have personal experience with this scam. Just as I imagine your apparent indifference to this situation is a byproduct of your success in the legal field, my elevated concern is a byproduct of my own personal experience. Also, I think there are factors unique to the LS scam that make it particularly damaging to the victims (radical impact on one's employment trajectory, massive debt that can't be discharged, etc.)

"Btw, I am way better off for going to law school. I presume that this fact eats bothers you as well"

You presume incorrectly. I am glad you have found success. The numbers, however, bear witness that this is atypical - particularly for those who do not attend the most elite schools.

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parlance (May 14, 2018 - 11:30 pm)

I have a myriad regrets in life but not remaining dependent on the family ain't one of them. You should be careful about making the assumption that the family is a safe refuge for everyone. And as far as lack of prestige goes, you will discover in life that snobbery is something that is highly resilient and will continue even once you have proven your worth in the world; facts and actual occurrences have little bearing on it.

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turde (May 20, 2018 - 10:14 am)

Law school applicants now have much more useful information on whether to take the law school plunge compared to a decade ago. By useful info I mean that those $180k starting jobs are not a guarantee and there is no abundance of consolation “midlaw” jobs for students who miss biglaw. The scam blogs are almost entirely gone now but they did their job of raising awareness of law school pitfalls.

It is sad to see so many students eager to take on mountains of debt. I don’t think they realize that law is an “eat what you kill” industry, not a surefire upper-middle class office job. They also don’t fully understand the beatdown of compounding interest. I hope they make it and accomplish their goals. If not, the lemmings ruined their future so a limousine liberal professor could buy a beach-front property, it’s how they “give back.”

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wearyattorney (May 20, 2018 - 2:45 pm)

TITCR.

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