Remembering TCPaul, 2016-2019

A Field With A Bright Future.

https://www.thefacultylounge.org/20 19/03/new-study-on-the-st wearyattorney03/25/19
Just commenting to say that your final sentence is poetry. L junkwired03/25/19
- I looked at my alma mata (public school) tuition, it’s dingbat03/25/19
The actual paper has a chart where he says that the number o onehell03/25/19
Fair, but the overall field is declining in light of those n wearyattorney03/25/19
"How do you rationalize the slow growth in light of an extre jeffm03/25/19
Right, but that should give you pause when applying. Ma wearyattorney03/26/19
..Except I think the point of OP's article was that it has s onehell03/27/19
It’s consistently shrinking and in spite of a strong econo wearyattorney03/27/19
True. For every job vacancy, a new law grad is going to be a cranky03/26/19
It's all about how much total money is coming into the indus chicagoloser03/26/19
Law is becoming increasingly antiquated, plain and simple. mtbislife03/27/19
Antiquation is an interesting idea. With all the talk of e- dupednontraditional03/27/19
Request Admin do title change to A Field With A Blighted wutwutwut03/27/19
wearyattorney (Mar 25, 2019 - 6:30 am)

https://www.thefacultylounge.org/2019/03/new-study-on-the-state-of-the-entry-level-law-jobs-market-and-its-implications-part-iv-what-the-curr.html

There are 26 percent fewer entry legal jobs available this year than in 2007. The only reason there isn’t a total apocapalypse right now in terms of entry level employment stats is because of the drop of enrollment (which correlates with the drop in entry level jobs).

In other words, the greatest labor economic in 30 years is going on, and the legal field is effectively shrinking.

When ITE2 strikes, I’m curious to see what is going to happen. I looked at my alma mata (public school) tuition, it’s over 25 percent more expensive than when I attended more than fifteen years ago.

The fact that the federal government is allowing this to happen really shows the rot in the system. There is no reason to give these places free money. If they want to scam, they need to do it on the merits like Elizabeth Holmes, there’s no reason why tax payers should be funding the life style of tenured professors.

At this point, I think it also should be mentioned that lemmings really have little excuse for the horror that awaits them. Yes, Boomer culture is strong, and yes the paradigms of the post-War period are still portrayed as reality in all areas of culture, but if a stat like that doesn’t make you think for 2 minutes, you need a lobotomy. Even the most ardent “I’m going to beat the odds” super lemming should look at a stat like that and shudder in fear.

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junkwired (Mar 25, 2019 - 8:04 am)

Just commenting to say that your final sentence is poetry. Laughed out loud IRL at "super lemming."

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dingbat (Mar 25, 2019 - 3:03 pm)

- I looked at my alma mata (public school) tuition, it’s over 25 percent more expensive than when I attended more than fifteen years ago.

I wonder if that's sticker price or average tuition fees

Most schools have raised their nominal prices but also increased the number and size of discounts(scholarships), so the average tuition is almost always noticeably lower than sticker price. They're basically using suckers to subsidize winners.

At my alma mater, for example, only about 1/3rd of students received scholarship when I attended, and grants were typically $5k or $10k, with only a small handful receiving 50% discount. Last year 70% received grants, typically $20k or $25k

Take a look at yours: http://howicompare.com/schools/

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onehell (Mar 25, 2019 - 4:46 pm)

The actual paper has a chart where he says that the number of seats in law schools has actually declined faster than the decline in law jobs overall. The decline in entry-level jobs having stabilized, the "gap" is now approx. 35k graduates to about 23k jobs.

Lemmings can still lemming with this data. OK, says the 0L, there aren't as many jobs as there once were but there are also fewer people competing for them, and overall it has stabilized to about 1.5 graduates per entry-level legal job.

Of course, state-by-state licensure being what it is, most graduates can't even apply for jobs anywhere but those in states where they chose to took the bar, at least not prior to the incurring the huge amount of time and expense associated with taking another bar. And it tells you nothing about what these jobs actually pay, but the bottom line is that 1.5 graduates per job doesn't sound THAT bad especially since at least SOME graduates aren't looking to actually practice. So maybe 1.3 per job or so? A lemming would probably admit that isn't fantastic, but they would likely not see it as a current or impending apocalypse.

Lemmings might also misread the data to think that most jobs they apply to will have between 0 and 1 other applicant, which of course ignores the fact that you're not competing just with new grads but with all the people who graduated in previous classes, didn't find anything and haven't completely given up yet. So every year the number of people looking for this "entry level" work grows, those 0.5 people don't just disappear and all those .5s (and higher imbalance numbers left over from the crash) add up faster than dirty dishes in the sink. There's also people who got laid off or took time off to raise a kid or whatever and then look to jump back in, so you do see experienced lawyers applying for supposedly "entry-level" law jobs, and if they're willing to take entry-level salaries then they will generally blow the actual entry level candidates out of the water.

The result is that for the average grad it's probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 to 1 odds (at least) against getting any particular job you apply to, and if it's a good steady gig like a government job it's probably more like 100 to 1, particularly in the desirable urban areas to which lawyers tend to gravitate. And even if you get it, it won't be anything close to enough to service your debt without IBR. But again, this report isn't about those things.

So lemmings will be able to continue to lemming even if they do read it.

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wearyattorney (Mar 25, 2019 - 10:27 pm)

Fair, but the overall field is declining in light of those numbers, that’s the issue.

How do you rationalize the slow growth in light of an extremely tight labor market, that’s the question.

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jeffm (Mar 25, 2019 - 11:08 pm)

"How do you rationalize the slow growth in light of an extremely tight labor market, that’s the question."

Advances in technology - especially with countless legal forms, instructions and articles all over the internet - have enabled people to avoid using lawyers. Lawyers will still be useful for those who aren't inclined to engage in self-help. In addition, this same technology enables lawyers to render services far more efficiently than 20-30 years ago. This results in more competitive pricing for basic, cookie-cutter services.

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wearyattorney (Mar 26, 2019 - 1:08 am)

Right, but that should give you pause when applying.

Many fields are growing, and this one is shrinking. If nothing else, that should give pause.

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onehell (Mar 27, 2019 - 11:33 am)

..Except I think the point of OP's article was that it has shrunk quite a bit, and will not go back to where it was, but that it has stabilized, i.e. stopped shrinking. It will not grow, except to keep pace with overall population growth, so this is the "new normal." If someone reads it and thinks the law schools have adequately responded by cutting class sizes, then it gives little pause.

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wearyattorney (Mar 27, 2019 - 3:45 pm)

It’s consistently shrinking and in spite of a strong economy. The fact that the supply has come down so it hasn’t had a more profound impact on the labor market is relevant, but largely outweighed by where this field is headed: down.

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cranky (Mar 26, 2019 - 9:43 am)

True. For every job vacancy, a new law grad is going to be applying against many other recent grads in addition to unemployed, underemployed, and/or unhappy more experienced attorneys. 14 years ago I applied for a position with a small insurance defense firm. I thought I was well qualified for it and excited to get a call for an interview. The partner told me they'd already received almost 100 applications for the job. I didn't get it either, and that's one of the reasons why I had to go solo. Nowadays, even if I wanted a job, my resume would likely get tossed because I have too much experience and wouldn't want to be bossed around.

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chicagoloser (Mar 26, 2019 - 5:37 pm)

It's all about how much total money is coming into the industry. The healthcare sector is over $3 trillion and tech (my field) is at least $1 trillion. These industries can employ millions of people with plenty still left over for the 1% to earn or steal (depending on your political persuasion).

The legal field has been shrinking for decades. Last I heard its economic contribution was less than $100 billion.

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mtbislife (Mar 27, 2019 - 2:34 pm)

Law is becoming increasingly antiquated, plain and simple.

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dupednontraditional (Mar 27, 2019 - 4:21 pm)

Antiquation is an interesting idea. With all the talk of e-discovery and AI doc review and arbitration and courts or claim, and and and, will one’s right to bring a matter to court be increasingly truncated to the point where things become auto-adjudicated.

I still believe people are valuable in that we exercise judgment, something a machine can’t (for now) do. But how many people will we need for that if most matters get increasingly relegated to the Alexa “cyber-court.”

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wutwutwut (Mar 27, 2019 - 6:04 pm)

Request Admin do title change to

A Field With A Blighted Future.

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