Celebrating 10 years! 2007-2017

Recession Looming?

What do you guys think? dwismost12/09/18
I think it will happen around mid 2019, but I thought for su turde12/09/18
Same. I've been saying this since 2015, and have been consis guyingorillasuit12/11/18
You cant have UE at 3.7% without at least mal-investment. Fo demwave12/09/18
The global economy relies on people being delusional about t qdllc12/10/18
Based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory, of course a slowdow wallypancake12/10/18
Or a downtick in oil prices. Here in Houston, people in th jeffm12/10/18
My interpretation of ABCT says that low interest rates fuele normshow01/11/19
Fed will increase interest rates in 2019 after overdosing th jmoney12/10/18
In 2000, the Dow was 10,000. We have massive asset bubbles massivemissive12/11/18
The Fed creating money out of thin air is not miraculous. Ju debtslave1512/11/18
That's part of it. The other part is that when people have jeffm12/11/18
GOP economic policies usually do cause a recession, though t dingbat12/11/18
I was expecting a recession in 2014-2016, sure that the pres trickydick12/11/18
Oh I’m good. Got a townhouse worth 800k in a tech driven w dwismost12/12/18
The worst recessions tend to be the ones people either don't parlance12/12/18
But no one knows how far it will fall. That's the uncertain massivemissive12/12/18
there will be a time lag as things freeze up worldwide from whiteguyinchina12/13/18
I originally said 2022 based on a recovery cycle starting in flyer1412/14/18
starting to look more like 2018 haha shouldalearnedmath12/20/18
I keep poasting in other subforums an image of Nero fiddling flyer1412/20/18
I was one of the very few people I knew who was expecting a ibrslave12/17/18
This upcoming period will prove that chinese growth is crowd demwave12/20/18
Ron Paul is definitely not a good source to get info from. nycatt01/01/19
What do you mean "pick and choose libertarianism"? debtslave1501/02/19
With a fiat currency and a central bank, money is created wh jmoney01/02/19
Thanks for the explanation jmoney, which was a little over m ibrslave01/02/19
That article is good. jmoney01/02/19
It’s looking like Weekend at Bernie’s 2 mitchmcdeere01/04/19
Although it wasn't case with 2007-2009, recessions are often parlance01/08/19
You make it sound like the people don't notice getting fired normshow01/11/19
People are prepared to pay almost $1000 for an Iphone. Somet bcls01/11/19
What do you mean almost $1000? Young people would post abou imoothereforeim01/12/19



dwismost (Dec 9, 2018 - 12:53 am)

What do you guys think?

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turde (Dec 9, 2018 - 10:28 am)

I think it will happen around mid 2019, but I thought for sure there would be a recession since at least 2015 and have been consistently wrong.

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guyingorillasuit (Dec 11, 2018 - 12:07 am)

Same. I've been saying this since 2015, and have been consistently wrong. A few months ago, I started thinking that maybe we are done with market downturns permanently.

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demwave (Dec 9, 2018 - 11:30 am)

You cant have UE at 3.7% without at least mal-investment. Forget about the US but everywhere else in the world looks worse. China because of the trade war, Russia, Canada and Middle East because of low oil prices, UK because of Brexit, Italy (budget), France (yellow jackets) speak for themselves. Lower growth all around!

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qdllc (Dec 10, 2018 - 8:08 am)

The global economy relies on people being delusional about the future and ignorant about basic economics. That said, any “collapse” should have happened already. A hell of a lot of work is going on behind the scenes to prevent this from happening.

So, all the doom and gloom talk right now is deliberate. Someone is making money off the current situation...someone always is. That, and/or it’s politically motivated.

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wallypancake (Dec 10, 2018 - 3:49 pm)

Based on Austrian Business Cycle Theory, of course a slowdown, even a recession, is coming. OP, is this based on bitcoins as an economic bellwhether? Market correction? Uptick in doc review? Strong growth in law school enrollment?

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jeffm (Dec 10, 2018 - 4:54 pm)

Or a downtick in oil prices. Here in Houston, people in the industry are already feeling it, talking about it and becoming more insecure.

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normshow (Jan 11, 2019 - 10:46 pm)

My interpretation of ABCT says that low interest rates fueled the 90's boom / resulting 2001 depression, but that depression was cut short because lower interest rates fueled the housing bubble / resulting 2008 depression, which was also cut short because QE fueled the current (temporary) recovery.

If the theory is reasonably accurate, then each resulting depression will be subsequently worse and more severe until the policy doesn't work anymore and the underlying problems in the economy are finally exposed and dealt with. If the next crisis exposes additional weaknesses in the government's ability to pay back interest on the national debt, fund the military, and make good on Medicare payments, it has the potential to be the true depression that was supposed to happen 20 years ago.

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jmoney (Dec 10, 2018 - 9:11 pm)

Fed will increase interest rates in 2019 after overdosing the economy in near zero interest FRR for a decade, the withdrawal is coming.

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massivemissive (Dec 11, 2018 - 6:51 am)

In 2000, the Dow was 10,000. We have massive asset bubbles out there. How they’ve been kept inflated this long is a miracle.

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debtslave15 (Dec 11, 2018 - 8:47 am)

The Fed creating money out of thin air is not miraculous. Just a few strokes on the keyboard.

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jeffm (Dec 11, 2018 - 9:20 am)

That's part of it. The other part is that when people have a lot of money, the price of things the buy goes up.

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dingbat (Dec 11, 2018 - 6:12 pm)

GOP economic policies usually do cause a recession, though they didn’t go quite as far as usual because of gross incompetence.

We are due for one, but it shouldn’t be too bad this time

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trickydick (Dec 11, 2018 - 6:51 pm)

I was expecting a recession in 2014-2016, sure that the president would be walking into a bad recession in early 2017. I’m honestly shocked we’ve gone this long without a recession. If it took this long for things to go south, I think we caught a lucky break. Hope you made the most of it.

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dwismost (Dec 12, 2018 - 12:02 pm)

Oh I’m good. Got a townhouse worth 800k in a tech driven west coast city nearly paid off. I could write a check and pay it off.

Sitting on some cash. Waiting for the drop.

This board talked me outta law school years ago even after I’d paid seat deposit. I’ll always be grateful.

Smarts post here so I visit from time to time and ask questions.

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parlance (Dec 12, 2018 - 3:03 pm)

The worst recessions tend to be the ones people either don't see coming or vastly underestimate how bad it's going to be, and that was definitely the case with 2007-2009. This time around could still be very torrential, but with so many people expecting it, I'm wondering how bad it can really be.

And plus, with the Dow Jones seeming getting slammed every second or third day, it's kind of hard to make the case for any shock factor.

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massivemissive (Dec 12, 2018 - 4:26 pm)

But no one knows how far it will fall. That's the uncertainty, along with the memory of how much pain was experienced in 2009. Don't forget that most retirees are counting on their portfolios to sustain them as well.

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whiteguyinchina (Dec 13, 2018 - 11:50 pm)

there will be a time lag as things freeze up worldwide from the china thing. its coming.

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flyer14 (Dec 14, 2018 - 1:39 pm)

I originally said 2022 based on a recovery cycle starting in 2015ish

It’s starting to look more like 2020

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shouldalearnedmath (Dec 20, 2018 - 1:22 pm)

starting to look more like 2018 haha

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flyer14 (Dec 20, 2018 - 1:30 pm)

I keep poasting in other subforums an image of Nero fiddling while Rome burns.

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ibrslave (Dec 17, 2018 - 10:19 am)

I was one of the very few people I knew who was expecting a major correction in 2007, months before politicians and media were aware of what was coming or were actually admitting what they knew. I think I was posting about this waaayyyy back on jdjive (RIP). Friends and family thought I was a loon. I was, but that’s beside the point.

I am not an economist or a finance person. I just read a lot of economic and political news and try to read between the lines and decide for myself what to believe or not. I respect the “experts” but don’t always follow their advice. I learned years ago that NOBODY knows when the next recession/crash/boom/etc is coming.

My non-expert tea leaves are telling me that there is a 50% chance of a recession within the next 6 months and a 75% chance within the next year. As far as a full-on 1929 style depression, I’d say there’s a 10-20% chance within the next 2 years. There is a lot of negativity out there and too many bubbles, especially debt and credit, to sustain this propped-up artificial economy. Not that Ron Paul is a guru, but he is calling for such a depression within the next year: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/12/14/ron-paul-market-meltdown-could-spark-depression-like-conditions.html.

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demwave (Dec 20, 2018 - 7:29 pm)

This upcoming period will prove that chinese growth is crowding out other growth. We are all better off with china growing 2 or 3 percent and have low commodity prices than china growing gangbusters and sucking up energy, copper etc etc

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nycatt (Jan 1, 2019 - 11:11 am)

Ron Paul is definitely not a good source to get info from. A broken clock is right twice a day and his pick and choose version of libertarianism is sickening. For me, I don't care when there is a recession. As far as the stock market goes, the dips are short (even the great depression was only a few years) and you only get hurt if you take your money out during that time. As far as my profession, I am in real estate law. Leasing, nonpayment evictions, developer disputes, and litigating to evict underpriced tenants in underhanded ways during good times (or representing tenants on the other side of it) and during bad times, even more non payment litigations and way more bankruptcies and way more representing developers going bust and less leasing and deals. I recommend getting into a line of work that is somewhat recession proof.

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debtslave15 (Jan 2, 2019 - 9:20 am)

What do you mean "pick and choose libertarianism"?

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jmoney (Jan 2, 2019 - 6:47 pm)

With a fiat currency and a central bank, money is created when loans are executed. When interest rates are low, more loans are executed. This creates more money. This money goes into bank accounts (the debtor spends the money, the money goes to seller, seller deposits in bank account). Then the receiving banks loan out most of this money, which gets spent, which goes into bank accounts, whereby most of it is then loaned out, etc etc.

And all of these dollars going around causes prices to go up (holding supply and demand constant).

This is called the credit cycle.

Guess where we are in the credit cycle?

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ibrslave (Jan 2, 2019 - 9:32 pm)

Thanks for the explanation jmoney, which was a little over my head. This article helped me to understand: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/15/the-credit-cycle-signals-that-recession-is-around-the-corner/amp/.

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jmoney (Jan 2, 2019 - 9:59 pm)

That article is good.

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mitchmcdeere (Jan 4, 2019 - 8:48 am)

It’s looking like Weekend at Bernie’s 2

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parlance (Jan 8, 2019 - 11:45 pm)

Although it wasn't case with 2007-2009, recessions are often over before economic data even confirms their existence.

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normshow (Jan 11, 2019 - 4:05 pm)

You make it sound like the people don't notice getting fired

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bcls (Jan 11, 2019 - 11:01 pm)

People are prepared to pay almost $1000 for an Iphone. Something is not right.

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imoothereforeim (Jan 12, 2019 - 10:59 am)

What do you mean almost $1000? Young people would post about much corporations suck from their iPhones.


But Warrent Buffet informed us the little people that iPhones are actually cheap. He only owns 5% of Apple so he must be telling the truth. What a great guy.

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